UNCERTAINTY ANALYSIS IN SIMULATION FOR RESERVOIR MANAGEMENT: CASE STUDY FROM NIGER DELTA

📄 Project Abstract

Uncertainty analysis of flow performance predictions involves identifying significant reservoir parameters impacting the flow response. Uncertainty analysis often requires conducting large number of reservoir simulation runs. In this work, experimental design theory (DoE), Response Surface Methodology (RSM) and numerical simulation were integrated to reduce the number of simulations and simplify the optimization process. Various investigators have applied DoE/RSM to approximate a complex process with regression polynomials within a certain well defined region. The application of these DoE/RSM methods is more often based on the experimenter's discretions or company practices with no attention paid to the risks involved. Hence, in this work, it is necessary to examine the basis for the various DoE/RSM methods for the purpose of developing guidelines for the construction of valid response surfaces. First, three families of linear experimental design methodologies, the Placket-Burman, Frac...